Sustainable Developments(Summarized from Coping with a Persistent Oil Crisis, by Jeffery D. Sachs, published in Scientific American, October 2008)- US drivers drive vehicles [V] less, reducing fuel using to 13 million [m] barrels [bl] / day [d] [mbd], ie 13mbd.
- (At 42gallons [g] /bl, then this is 546mgd, and at $4/g the cost is $2.184md
- This is 546mgd times 365 (d/year) [y] in g/y = 199,290mgy or 3,985,800mg/20y.
- Converted to gasoline at $4/g, the fuel costs = $2.184bd or $797.18by, $15,943.2b20y
- BTW: US purchasing power, in 2007, was $37.753bd, so they spent the $2.1864bd, ie 5.78% of their daily income for V-fuel.)
- US drivers own 750mV
- (Based on simple calculations, and spending
$2,186.4md on 750mVd, they spent $2.192/Vd, at $4/g, on 0.27288gd of
V-fuel/V.
- (Based on an average of 25 miles/g, they average 18.22
miles/d/V, or 6,650 miles/yV. Also based on 4-passengers/V, there are
72.88 passenger-miles/d, or 26,660 passenger-miles/y.)
- The Indian and Chinese increase in driving will soon outstrip any US reduction
- Persian Gulf production is steady at 20bdb
- 18b of additional oil, accessible from offshore US sources, over 10-to-15y, will supply seven months of global demand over the entire duration
- China has 50mV
- Currently the total V = 900m, Worldwide
- China and India can increase Worldwide V by 400mV to 1.3bV, over the next 20y
RDL Calculates:
- Even allowing for the increase to 1.3bV, but assuming the efficiency of V-engines in miles/b is doubled, the cost of V-fuel requirements, for the current US total, 750mV, would fall from $2.1844bd to $1.092bd.
- With 365dy and over 20y. (ie 7300d) and, the 50% efficiency improvement took effect evenly over the 750mV over 7300d, then 10,274V/d's efficiency would be improved by 50%. The savings over 20 years would be $3.9858t, an average of $546md, $199.3by (plus $1.092bd thereafter)
- However, if-and-as V-fuel is switched from fossil-fuel [FF] (ie oil, gas and coal and electricity generated from FF) to hydrogen (produced without using burning FF): then, the remaining $3.9858t is over 20 years and $546md thereafter are both reduced to zero.
- However, replacing the distribution system to provide for fuel in filling stations with hydrogen produced in centralized plants and distributed over pipelines and/or via V, then the cost estimated (by others) is between $2t and $20t. RDL assumes the cost would be $11t, and that
- (Producing hydrogen from FF is not likely to reduce costs of fuel, nor will reduce CO2 emissions produced in converting FF to hydrogen.)
- However, providing hydrogen produced in Utopian houses, businesses and industrial plants from water (using sunlight, wind, tides, waves and/or subsurface energy, but no FF) will cost not more than one-tenth the $11t cost of rebuilding the gasoline distribution system to distribute hydrogen instead, ie ~ $11t times 0.1, or $1.1t
- With 899 Utopia, each housing 50k people/Utopia, each using about 17k Zero-CO2, Gavin Hawks (16m, including all 50m+, Utopian residents) instead of 16m Vs, for trips of over 25 miles. This lowers the number of Vs sold and used by 1.6m/y. The average of five years of life/V replaces 64m Vs, over 20y, being built, distributed and sold, with an average price/V of $25k, totaling is $1.6t.
- Replacing the four fleets of 16m cars, each lasting for five years with a similar number of Gavin Hawks, each lasting 10 years each, but costing twice as much, on average, say $50k each, offsetting the $1.6t saving, exactly
- CO2 emissions is reduced by two-tons/Vy, valued at $21/ton totaling $6.72b.
- Therefore, the total additional savings is: $3.9858t + $11t -1.1t + $0.00672t, ie ~$14.39252t, including the cost of providing 32m Gavin Hawks, over 20 years, from 2010ad to the end of 2029ad
- Producing hydrogen fuel for Gavin Hawks for the same passenger millage for 50m+ people, over twenty years, would be the same as the fuel produced for cars
- Based on US GDP of $13.78ty, ie $275.6t, over the next 20 years, this requirement would be reduced by 5.22%/y.
- Or, these savings, ie $719.626by, could be used to finance Utopia. For the Houses per Utopium, the cost is $3.5b. With 5k businesses, and 1k industrial plants (all of which incorporate facilities for generation of electricity and hydrogen produced from water), the additional cost is $4b making the total $7.5b/Utopia.
- The US savings could finance 96 Utopia/y. For the 20 year project, the 899 Utopia cost $6.7425t, ie $337.125by
The current situation as of September 2008
(Adapted from Scientific American:
http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-science/post.cfm?id=greenhouse-gas-pollution-up-despite-2008-09-26&sc=CAT_SP_20080929)
Greenhouse gas pollution [is] up despite economic downturn
Despite a slowing global economy, [CO2] continued to rise in 2007 .... jumping to 8.47b metric tons .... or 2.9% higher than the last year's total. (China is up more than 7 percent to 1.8b metric tons).
The U. N Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warned last year that unless pollution is reduced, global average temperatures could rise by between four and 11 degrees Fahrenheit..... Such a temperature rise would likely cause....melting of ice sheets....and raising sea levels and impacting water supplies and changes in weather patterns.
Developing countries currently account for more than half of global .... CO2 ....emissions -- led by China and India....[B]etween one-quarter and one-third of Chinese emissions are the result of manufacturing for developed countries.
Emissions have been rising four times faster this decade .... Concentrations of CO2 now stand at 383 parts-per-million [ppm], more than two ppm more than in 2006 .... double the rate of growth in the 1970s.
.... [T]he rise in CO2 levels from fossil fuel burning, 1.5b metric tons ....were added .... by the cutting down of forests .... acceleration of both CO2 emissions and atmospheric accumulation are unprecedented and most astonishment during a decade of intense international developments to address climate change.....
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